“The Shape of Water” has been nominated for 13 Academy Awards, and has emerged as the clear favorite to win the 2018 Best Picture Oscar.
The relatively low-budget fantasy film, directed by Guillermo del Toro, has received a tremendous amount of Oscar buzz, and looks to be the movie to beat when it comes to the nine films nominated for Best Picture.
At William Hill, the odds of “The Shape of Water” taking home the Oscar opened at 4/6, making it the favorite over the field as a whole. In fact, most of the other nominees are given relatively little chance at winning the award for Best Picture next month.
‘Three Billboards’ Also in Contention
But there is at least one serious challenger. “Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri” has earned seven Oscar nominations overall, and is the clear second choice for entertainment bettors, coming in at 13/8. The drama, starring Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson, and Sam Rockwell, has received rave reviews for its balance of dramatic tension with dark comedy.
Outside of these two films, the most likely dark horse is “Lady Bird,” which is offering 9/1 odds. The coming-of-age comedic drama, written and directed by Greta Gerwig, was among the best reviewed films of the year, and was named Best Film by the Chicago Film Critics Association.
Other films in the running for Best Picture include “Get Out” (16/1), the war epic “Dunkirk” (33/1), political thriller “The Post” (33/1), “Call Me By Your Name” (40/1), “Phantom Thread” (66/1) and “Darkest Hour” (66/1).
Oldman, McDormand Runaway Picks for Acting Categories
A similar race is shaping up in the Best Director category. Del Toro is once again the odds on favorite for his work on “The Shape of Water,” garnering almost overwhelming 2/9 odds. But Christopher Nolan is given a reasonable shot (10/3) for his direction of “Dunkirk,” while Greta Gerwig (7/1) could also pull an upset for “Lady Bird.” Jordan Peele (33/1) also received a nomination for “Get Out,” but is considered a long shot to win in his first Oscar nomination
The two major acting categories appear to be closer to locks for the favorites. While there were many strong performances this year, the Best Actor award appears destined to go to Gary Oldman for his portrayal of Prime Minister Winston Churchill during the early days of World War II in “Darkest Hour.” Oddsmakers have Oldman as an overwhelming 1/12 favorite over other contenders such as Daniel Kaluuya (12/1), Timothee Chalamet (12/1), Daniel Day-Lewis (16/1), and Denzel Washington (33/1).
Frances McDormand’s control over the Best Actress category may not be as ironclad, but it would still be a major upset if she didn’t win for her performance in Three Billboards. McDormand is a 1/7 favorite, while Saoirse Ronan (6/1) is given the best odds of pulling the upset for her role in Lady Bird. Sally Hawkins (12/1), Margot Robbie (50/1) and Meryl Streep (66/1) are also nominated.
The 90th Academy Awards will be awarded on Sunday, March 4. Winners are determined by a vote by the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
