Without a manuscript, there’s really no blueprint for a motion picture, which is why the Academy Awards honors screenwriters in two different categories. Paul Thomas Anderson is the front runner at the 2022 Oscars to win Best Original Screenplay with ‘Licorice Pizza’, and Jane Campion is the huge favorite with ‘The Power of the Dog’ to win Best Adapted Screenplay, which is based on a novel by Thomas Savage.
‘The Power of the Dog’ earned the most nominations at the 2022 Oscars with 12 nods, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Four thespians in ‘The Power of the Dog’ earned nominations in three different acting categories, with Kodi Smit-McPhee the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor.
| 2022 OSCARS BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ODDS |
- Licorice Pizza -165
- Belfast +160
- Don’t Look Up +700
- King Richard +2000
- The Worst Person in the World +3300
| 2022 OSCARS BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ODDS |
- The Power of the Dog -500
- CODA +650
- The Lost Daughter +800
- Dune +1200
- Drive My Car +1400
At last year’s Oscars, Emerald Fennell won “Promising Young Woman” by Emerald Fennell won Best Original Screenplay. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller won Best Adapted Screenplay with “the Father”, which was based on a stage play by Zeller.
Original Screenplay: Anderson, Branagh, McKay
Anderson earned his fifth writing nomination with ‘Licorice Pizza’, which is another 70s-era film set in the Valley with newcomers Cooper Hoffman and Alana Haim. He has never won an Oscars for any of his previous screenplays, which include some gems. Anderson earned two nominations for Best Original Screenplay with ‘Boogie Nights’ (1997) and ‘Magnolia’ (1999) in the late 1990s. He earned two nods for Best Adapted Screenplay with ‘There Will Be Blood’ (2007) and ‘Inherent Vice'(2014). ‘Licorice Pizza’ is the betting favorite at BetMGM at -155 odds to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2022 Oscars and secure a first-writing win for Anderson
Kenneth Branagh wrote and directed a personal story and coming-of-age tale about growing up in Northern Ireland in the late 1960s amidst the Troubles between Catholics and Protestants. ‘Belfast’ is the closest competition for ‘Licorice Pizza’ at +160 odds to win Best Original Screenplay.
Adam McKay earned his third writing nod with his satirical take on the end of the world with ‘Don’t Look Up’, which stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. This asteroid disaster flick is currently available on Netflix, but it’s only +700 odds to win. McKay won Best Adapted Screenplay with ‘The Big Short’ in 2016.
‘King Richard’ written by Zach Baylin and ‘The Worst Person in the World’ penned by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier are the long shots on the betting board for Original Screenplay.
Adapted Screenplay: Anyone Upset Campion?
This year’s scripts for Best Adapted Screenplay include source material from three novels and a short story by Haruki Murakami.
‘The Power of the Dog’ is the betting favorite at -500 odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay by Campion, which is based on a thrilling western novel by Thomas Savage, that takes place in Montana in the 1920s.
‘CODA’ is a touching story about a young woman who wants to go off to college to study music, but she’s from a small fishing village and has two deaf parents. Sian Heder penned the screenplay, but it’s based on a French film titled ‘La Famille Belier’ from 2014. ‘CODA’ and Heder has the closest competition for Campion in the Best Adapted Screenplay category at +650 odds.
‘The Lost Daughter’ was written and directed by Maggie Gyllenhaal, which is based on a novel by Elena Ferrante. Gyllenhaal earned her first writing nomination, but she’s +800 odds to pull off an upset.
‘Dune’ is based on the fantastic sci-fi novel by Frank Herbert. The adaption by Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth earned a nomination, but the trio are long shots at +1200 odds.
‘Drive My Car’ is based on a short story from Murakami, who is revered as the greatest living Japanese fiction writer. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe adapted the short story for the big screen, but they’re the biggest long shot on the board at +1400 odds.
Check out more of OG’s coverage of the 2022 Oscars including odds and betting information.