Oddsmakers at PointsBet adjusted their win totals for the upcoming MLB season. The Los Angeles Dodgers appeared in the World Series twice in the past three seasons, and are the consensus favorites once again in the National League. The Dodgers have the best over/under win total in the NL at 38.5 wins this season (consisting of 60 games). That equates to approximately 104 wins in a full 162-game season.
The Dodgers added Mookie Betts and David Price to their already strong roster in the offseason, which is one of the reasons they’re the top NL team on the World Series Futures board at 7/2 odds to win the championship.
The Dodgers were unstoppable last season, jumping out to a hot start from which they never looked back. They amassed the most wins in baseball with a 106-56 record. They were upset in the playoffs by the Washington Nationals in the NLDS in five games. The Nats went on to win the championship, and the Dodgers missed out on their third consecutive trip to the World Series.
NL ADJUSTED WIN TOTALS (60 GAMES)
Los Angeles Dodgers 38.5
Atlanta Braves 34.5
Washington Nationals 33.5
Chicago Cubs 32.5
St. Louis Cardinals 32.5
Cincinnati Reds 31.5
Philadelphia Phillies 31.5
Milwaukee Brewers 31.5
San Diego Padres 31.5
Arizona Diamondbacks 30.5
Colorado Rockies 27.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 25.5
San Francisco Giants 25.5
Miami Marlins 24.5
The San Francisco Giants are one of the projected bottom feeders in the NL this season, even though the team moved in the fences at Oracle Field and removed the antiquated on-field bullpens.
The Miami Marlins are getting more love than they deserve with a 24.5 over/under. Bookies are optimistic they’ll win 40% of their games. The lowest win total in the NL at 24.5 represents approximately a 66-win season for the lowly Marlins in a full 162-game slate.
Alphas: Dodgers, Braves, Nats
The LA Dodgers’ success bit them in the arse when the postseason rolled around and they overlooked the scrappy Washington Nationals. The Dodgers look better on paper this season. They acquired one of the best position players (Mookie Betts) and a strikeout savant (David Price).
The Nationals are 18/1 odds to win the World Series. History conspires against the World Series champ because there’s some truth to the proverbial “World Series hangover” affliction. The Yankees were the last team to win consecutive titles back in 2000 when they pulled off a three-peat. But in a shortened season, anything goes.
A win total of 33.5 equates to 90 victories in a full 162-game season. The Nats exceeded expectations last season, but can they pull off another miraculous run in the post-pandemic baseball world?
The Atlanta Braves were our sleeper pick last season. We had a bad feeling that the Dodgers might choke, but it ended up the Nationals played the role of sleeper, and not the Braves.
The Braves lost slugger Josh Donaldson to the Minnesota Twins. He’ll add even more brawn to the Minny Bomba Squad. Even without Donaldson, the Braves are still the team to beat in the NL East. The Braves have the second-highest NL win total on the board at 34.5 over/under this shortened season.
Betas: NL Central Quagmire
The NL Central were a bunch of cannibals last season while feasting on each other. At one point late in the summer, even the lowly Cincinnati Reds were in the thick of the fight for the division crown and a postseason berth.
The Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals were involved in a three-way melee up until the last two weeks of the season. The Cardinals snagged the NL Central crown in the last weekend of September, and the Brewers advanced as an NL wild-card team. The Cubs whiffed and quickly fired Joe Maddon.
The Cubs have a new manager this season, David Ross. During the Cubbies World Series run, Ross played a huge role in the locker room as a vocal leader and backup catcher.
The win total for the Cubs hovers at 33.5, which equates to an 87-win regular season. The Cardinals are right behind at 32.5, while the Brewers are at 31.5.
Third Tier: Phillies, Brewers, Padres
The Brewers can’t wait for Christian Yelich to return to the field. The MVP-candidate fractured his kneecap in September, but the team still went on a double-digit winning streak without their captain. Will they be at the front of the pack in the NL Central? Or will they become the third wheel during another Cardinals/Cubs sprint to the finish?
The Philadelphia Phillies saw their odds bump last summer with the addition of Bryce Harper in free agency. The Phillies were a break-even team with an 81-81 record in 2019. This season, bookies list them at 31.5 over/under win total (or roughly 85 wins during a full slate). The Phillies have a new skipper after hiring ex-Yankees manager, Joe Girardi.
Will the San Diego Padres be this weird season’s sleeper pick? The NL West is soft aside from the dominating Dodgers. The Padres lack a supporting cast, aside from Manny Machado, who struggled in his first season (.256 and 32 HR) with his new team. But they do have a slew of young arms like Chris Paddock and closer Kirby Yates, who surprised everyone with 41 saves on a 70-win team.
Take a peek at Adjusted AL Win Totals.
