The Buffalo Bills are the betting favorites to win the AFC East at -165 odds, but the New England Patriots at +130 odds quickly closed the gap after securing first place in the division thanks to a five-game winning streak.
The Bills struggled in the past few weeks with a 1-2 record, including a disappointing 9-6 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. Last Sunday, the sluggish Bills were throttled 41-15 by the Indianapolis Colts and slipped to second place in the AFC East.
The Patriots won the AFC East 16 times during an 18-season span at the height of the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era, including 11-straight division crowns. The Bills finally dethroned the Patriots last season for their first AFC East title since 1995.
| AFC East Odds |
- Buffalo Bills (6-4) -165
- New England Patriots (7-4) +130
- Miami Dolphins (4-7) +15000
- New York Jets (2-8) +100000
The Bills and Patriots have yet to play each other this season. They meet twice in December within a four-week span, which should be fun to watch considering they’re two of the top six offenses in the NFL.
The Bills are the second-highest scoring team, averaging 30.9 ppg, while the Patriots averaged 27.3 ppg this season. On the other side of the ball, the Bills and Patriots boast the two fiercest defenses in the league. The Patriots lead the league allowing only 16.1 ppg, while the Bills are ranked #2, allowing 17.6 ppg. In terms of defensive DVOA, the Bills are ranked #1 and the Patriots are ranked #2
Bills -165
The Bills started the season 4-1 before things went off the rails in Week 6 with an ugly 34-31 loss against the Tennessee Titans. Since then, the Bills went 2-3 with unimpressive victories against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.
The Bills had their bye in Week 7 and have seven more games on their schedule. They square off against the New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving evening, where the Saints are home dogs by almost a touchdown.
The Bills get a couple of extra days to rest up for the New England Patriots in Week 13. It’s the first of two huge games against the hated Patriots. The Bills Mafia will be out in force for that matchup in Week 13. They also have a tough game in Week 14 when they head down to Tampa Bay to take on Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Aside from a second game against the Patriots in New England in Week 16, the Bills have three easy home games in the last four weeks of the season. They host the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17, and end the season against the New York Jets in Week 18.
The Bills are favorites to win the AFC East at -165 odds, according to a recent update by DraftKings. They’re +350 odds to win the AFC Championship. The Bills saw their Super Bowl odds slip to +800 after peaking out as high as +400 a couple of weeks ago.
Patriots +130
The Patriots played 11 games and have yet to take a week off. The Patriots have a late bye this season in Week 14, which comes after a Week 13 showdown with the Bills in Buffalo.
After a sluggish 1-3 start, the Patriots sunk to 2-4 after a tough overtime loss against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6. Since that low point, the Patriots rattled off five wins in a row. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has steadily improved each week, despite the team losing most of its running backs to various injuries. During the 5-0 winning streak, Jones tossed seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. In the four games prior to that, Jones drew Bill Belichick’s wrath with six interceptions.
The Patriots square off against the Tennessee Titans this weekend, and the Titans are a +5 road dog.
After the bye, the Patriots have four games to finish out the season. They hit the road to play the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15 and the Mami Dolphins in Week 18. The Patriots have two home games in Foxboro in December against the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17.
The Patriots are +130 odds to win the AFC East and they’re worthy of a flier based on the way they’ve been playing. You can back the Patriots at +600 odds to win the AFC Championship, but they’re fourth on the futures board, trailing the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens. If you have faith in Belichick and Jones, the Patriots are +1400 odds to win Super Bowl 56.
