After a narrow victory at the first primary in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders is 3/2 odds to secure the Democrat nomination for US President. Senator Sanders holds a slim edge over former New York City mayor and Republican-turned-Democrat, Michael Bloomberg. Deep-pocketed Bloomberg is currently 2/1 odds to win the Democrat nomination. Meanwhile, “Mayor” Pete Buttigieg saw his nomination odds improve to 6/1 after a strong showing at the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
Sanders won 25.7 percent of the votes in New Hampshire and defeated Mayor Pete in a close race. However, both candidates secured the same amount of delegates with nine each. In New Hampshire, 24 delegates were in play. Amy Klobuchar finished in third in New Hampshire and she secured six delegates.
Elizabeth Warren received zero delegates after finishing a distant fourth place with only 9.2 percent of the votes.
DEMOCRAT NOMINATION ODDS (As of 2.12.20):
Bernie Sanders 3/2
Michael Bloomberg 2/1
Pete Buttigieg 6/1
Joe Biden 11/1
Amy Klobuchar 16/1
Elizabeth Warren 40/1
Former Vice President, Joe Biden, finished in fifth overall with only eight percent of the votes. Just one year ago, Biden looked like the front runner for the Democrat nomination.
Bloomberg, who spent over $300 million of his own money to enter the race as a Democrat, did not campaign in New Hampshire.
Bernie Edges Mayor Pete in New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, Sanders and Buttigieg finished first and second once again. Buttigieg defeated Sanders in a slim and controversial victory in the Iowa caucus last week. What’s been described as a disaster and embarrassing sh-tshow, a coding bug in a voting app caused it to crash.
In the past, candidates who finished outside the Top 5 in New Hampshire often struggled to secure campaign financing necessary to continue to compete in other primaries. Even though only 24 delegates are in play in New Hampshire and it’s still a long way to go until the actual Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee in July.
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY – TOP 5 RESULTS:
Bernie Sanders 25.7 percent (9 delegates)
Pete Buttigieg 24.4 percent (9)
Amy Klobuchar 19.8 percent (6)
Elizabeth Warren 9.2 percent (0)
Joe Biden 8.4 percent
** 98 percent precincts reporting
Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden incurred the biggest hit after a poor showing in New Hampshire. And although Klobuchar finished in third in New Hampshire, her campaign sees her performance as a major victory. The Senator from Minnesota had been polling nationally in single digits only a few weeks ago.
Andrew Yang, a proponent of legalized online poker and sports betting, knew when to fold a losing hand. Yang suspended his campaign before the New Hampshire results were announced. Yang finished in eighth place with less than three percent of the vote.
Sanders vs. Trump?
After a strong showing at the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, Bernie Sanders is the favorite at 3/2 odds to secure the Democrat nomination to run against incumbent President Donald Trump. William Hill adjusted their numbers with Sanders leading and Bloomberg’s Democrat nomination numbers improving from 5/2 to 2/1 odds.
Buttigieg, aka Mayor Pete, is the leading moderate Presidential candidate among the remaining Democrats. Mayor Pete saw his odds remain steady at 6/1, which previously jumped from 8/1 to 6/1 after his strong, yet controversial showing at the Iowa caucus.
At this point, it’s looking like a two-horse race between Sanders and Buttigieg against the billionaire with unlimited funds. However, Klobuchar, at 16/1 odds, has been gaining steam as a legitimate dark horse threat against Mayor Pete and Bernie Sanders.
Nate Silver from 538 analyzed recent polling data and early signs point toward a Bernie Sanders victory. However, Silver also said there’s a contested convention scenario in which Sanders fails to secure the majority of pledged delegates.
“The two takeaways that the model feels most confident about are two things that I’m happy to vouch for: Model takeaway No. 1: Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination,” said Silver. “Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing.”
After a poor showing at the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, Joe Biden’s campaign is on life support. They’re hoping to stay alive long enough to secure comeback wins in Super Tuesday states such as South Carolina. Biden’s 11/1 odds seem overly generous to secure the Democrat nomination.
