Bet on Day, Casey; Fade Mickelson, Johnson at Pebble Beach Pro-Am

To play or not to play? That’s the question that golf professionals ask themselves about the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. On one hand, the Monterey Peninsula in central California is stunning. The three golf courses used in the rotation — Pebble Beach, Spyglass, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club — are iconic and some of the most beautiful layouts golfers will face all year.

On the other hand, this is a pro-am, and there will be amateurs playing alongside the professionals. Some golfers don’t mind sharing the fairways with recreational players. Others, like Tiger Woods, would rather stick hot pokers their eyes. The other possible downside at Pebble is the weather. It can either be picture perfect, or cold, wet and miserable.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds

Dustin Johnson 13-2

Patrick Cantlay 9-1

Paul Casey 16-1

Matt Kuchar 20-1

Brandt Snedeker 25-1

Jason Day 25-1

Phil Mickelson 28-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 28-1

Daniel Berger 33-1

Branden Grace 33-1

Viktor Hovland 33-1

Graeme McDowell 40-1

Jordan Spieth 40-1

Russell Knox 45-1

Adam Hadwin 50-1

Tom Hoge 50-1

Kevin Kisner 50-1

Alexander Noren 50-1

Andrew Putnam 50-1

Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 

There is no rain forecast for this year’s tournament, which begins on Thursday. The final two rounds, however, will see winds up to 20 mph. Based on those conditions, here are the golfers who should thrive on the Montery Peninsula, and ones that it might be smart to stay away from this week.

Golfers We Like at Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Jason Day 25/1

Look at his finishes the last two years. Day was tied for fourth in 2019, and tied for second in 2018. Some golfers thrive here, and Day appears to be one of them. Day finished tied for 16^th two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. He is 16^th in greens in regulation, a stat that carries a lot of weight at these courses which punish golfers who aren’t accurate.

Max Homa 66/1

Besides having one of the funniest Twitter accounts on tour, Homa has been playing some pretty decent golf the last two weeks. He finished tied for ninth at the Farmers Insurance Open, and was tied for sixth last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He finished tied for 10^th last year at Pebble, and with long odds, he is a perfect dark horse.

Paul Casey 16/1

Casey enjoys the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and his record shows it. He finished second to Mickelson there last year, and was tied for eighth in 2018. We also like the fact that the Englishman last played on the PGA Tour three weeks ago at The American Express. He finished tied for 21^st, but more importantly, he was second in fairways hit and greens in regulation.

Golfers to Avoid This Week

Phil Mickelson 28/1

If someone can shake off a 17-hour plane ride from Saudi Arabia to Pebble Beach, it’s Mickelson. Of course, he is relaxing in a private jet, thus escaping the tolls of commercial flying. He also finished third at the Saudi Invitational, and might have turned a corner with his golf game. Defending a title, like Mickelson is doing at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is never easy. I would say take a pass on Lefty this week.

Graeme McDowell 40/1

Winning a tournament after a victory is a tough assignment. McDowell won the Saudi Invitational, his first win since 2014. He has a good record at Pebble Beach, but the emotionally draining event in the Middle East will catch up with the 40-year-old. Despite his success here, making the cut would be a victory, something he didn’t do two years ago.

Dustin Johnson 13/2

We realize that DJ is the favorite at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but hear us out. Johnson is another golfer that made the trip from Saudi Arabia back to the states, and that will affect him. Need proof? Last year, he won the Saudi Invitational and came to Pebble Beach. He finished tied for 45^th, his worst finish since missing the cut in 2013. Besides, there are golfers with better odds to put money on this week.