The NBA win totals were released this week by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and the usual suspects were at the top of the list, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some value picks for clever bettors.
But first, some questions … Will LeBron James make the Lakers a playoff contender? How will Houston do with Carmelo Anthony on the team? Is Indiana really as good as people think they will be? Will Kawhi Leonard make Toronto better than last year’s Eastern Conference win leader?
It’s in the answers to these questions where gamblers might be able to take advantage of some leaps of judgments by oddsmakers.
Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers 48.5 wins
The key here is can LeBron James take a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in five years and make them a contender. If they win 49 games that would project them to be fourth in the conference behind Golden State, Houston, and Oklahoma. They will face those teams 12 times during the season, and can they win half or more? The other question is are they really a better team than Utah or Denver?
Prediction: Take the under
Houston Rockets 54.5 wins
They sputtered in the playoffs when Chris Paul got hurt and management decided that Carmelo Anthony was the answer to get them into the NBA Finals next year. Ask Oklahoma City how well that worked out. Anthony likes to play keep away with the ball from his teammates, and that won’t play well with James Harden. It feels like the team took a step back with this move.
Prediction: Take the under
San Antonio Spurs 43.5 wins
With the Kawhi Leonard saga behind them, the team got a very serviceable player in DeMar DeRozan. I know he’s not thrilled about being betrayed by Toronto, but that actually could be used as motivation. Gregg Popovich, the best coach in basketball, will certainly present it that way, and I think this team surprises some people.
Prediction: Take the over
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics 57.5 wins
The team didn’t have Gordon Hayward for most of the season and Kyrie Irving for the last two months and they still won 55 games. With a watered down conference and the two best players back, they should be able to win three more games than they did last year.
Prediction: Take the over
Toronto Raptors 54.5 wins
While DeRozan might be able to get behind his coach, Leonard could do the exact opposite. This year he might be play out the season, protect himself against injury, and sign a big fat contract with the Lakers. Also, there are questions about Leonard’s health this year, and that plays into the team’s projected five less wins that 2017-2018.
Prediction: Take the under
New York Knicks 29.5 wins
Kristaps Porzingas tore his ACL in February and the Knicks season was essentially lost. They ended the season 29-53. Now the oddsmakers believe they can only be a half-game better with a healthy Porzingas and a surprisingly good rookie in Kenny Knox. If those two perform as expected, and coach David Fizdale can make this team believe, they should do much better than 30 wins.
Prediction: Take the over