When you beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on the road during a nationally televised game, you become the instant MVP betting favorite. That’s why Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback, is the new consensus favorite to win the NFL MVP at +450 odds.
Last week, Kyler Murray from the Arizona Cardinals surpassed Patrick Mahomes on the NFL Awards prop betting board over at Draft Kings. But after Allen and the Bills beat down the Chiefs 38-20 on Sunday Night Football, Murray slipped to second on the board at +500 odds.
| 2021 NFL MVP Odds |
- Josh Allen +450
- Kyler Murray +500
- Dak Prescott +700
- Justin Herbert +700
- Tom Brady +800
- Matthew Stafford +1000
- Aaron Rodgers +1200
- Lamar Jackson +1200
- Patrick Mahomes +1800
- Davante Adams +5000
- Kirk Cousins +5000
- Derrick Henry +6500
In the modern, pass-happy NFL, a quarterback will almost always win the MVP. Derrick Henry was the highest non-QB on the MVP betting board, but he’s now been surpassed by wide receiver Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers. Adams saw his MVP odds jump to +5000 ahead of Henry’s +6500.
Allen MVP Surge, Mahomes Slips
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Just two weeks ago, Mahomes was the outright favorite to win the MVP, but after a 2-3 start and a flurry of interceptions, he’s slipped to +1800 odds or ninth on the board.
Last week, Mahomes was +650 odds trailing behind Murray, but ahead of Allen and Herbert. Mahomes still leads the NFL with 16 touchdowns but he’s thrown six picks, which is a bit surprising. The Kansas City offense is no longer the juggernaut that terrified defenses for the past few seasons. KC’s offense is also struggling with injuries to Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Meanwhile, Allen saw his MVP odds steadily move from +1200 in the preseason to +700 last week. You can now back him at +450 odds, much to the delight of the Bills Mafia, who declared Allen their MVP for the past few seasons. Allen leads the NFL’s top offense, which averages 34.4 ppg.
The gunslinger out of Wyoming tossed 12 touchdowns this season while rushing for two. He’s currently Buffalo’s second-best rusher with 188 yards or a team-best 5.4 yards per carry.
MVP-Worthy: Murray, Prescott, and Herbert
Murray is still a popular pick at +500 odds and he only slipped a smidge since taking over as the favorite last week at +450 odds.
Dak Prescott is a huge favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but he also saw his MVP odds steadily increase throughout the season. The Cowboys are 4-1 and Prescott leads the league’s second-best offense that cranks out 34 ppg. Prescott is tied for third with 13 passing touchdowns.
Justin Herbert has emerged as one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league, which is impressive for the second-year player. Herbert threw 13 touchdowns through the first five games of the season with just three interceptions. The Los Angeles Chargers are in first place in the AFC West, which is one of the reasons why Herbert saw an MVP odds bump from +1200 in the preseason to +700.