There are some misconceptions about teams and NFL Week 4 should clear up a lot of them. Football pundits believe New England (1-2) is in trouble, and that undefeated Miami (3-0) is the new power in the AFC East.
Buffalo all of a sudden is being labeled a giant killer because of one surprisingly good week. Houston is in trouble after three games, and coach Bill O’Brien is on the hot seat.
This week questions should be answered. We look at some of games that might provide an edge for bettors.
1. Miami (-6.5) at New England
The rumors of New England’s demise are greatly exaggerated and this is just the game the Patriots need to prove it. They are at home and covered the only other time this season when hosting.
The line opened at 7.5, but has come down a point because the sharps believe in Tom Brady and the boys. We do as well, and caution anyone who believes in Miami being the best team in the AFC East. Their three victories were against Tennessee, New York Jets, and lowly Oakland.
They are due for a reality check and the Patriots are just the team to do it.
Take New England and give away the points.
2. Buffalo (-10.5) at Green Bay
The Bills had one of the biggest upsets in NFL history last week when they downed the Vikings as 17-point underdogs at Minnesota. Bettors, however, are forgetting the team’s previous two games, which were both blow out losses.
The 47-3 and 31-20 defeats are far more representative of Buffalo than last week’s win. Besides this is the second game on the road and they are traveling to Lambeau Field, never an easy place to leave with a victory.
The health of Aaron Rodgers is a bit concerning, but his team is extra motivated after losing last week to Washington. Expect them to take it out on the Bills and hand them their third big defeat.
Take Green Bay and give away the points.
3. Cleveland (-2) at Oakland
With the Baker Mayfield era underway this is exactly the type of game the No. 1 pick will be expected to win. The rookie should be able to do that against an Oakland team that is a red-hot mess.
The way to derail the rookie would be by putting pressure on him, but with the Raiders almost non-existent pass rush, he should have more than enough time to pick apart their secondary.
Expect Oakland to remain winless.
Take Cleveland and the points.
4. Detroit (+3) at Dallas
The Cowboys have serious cause for concern with quarterback Dak Prescott nowhere close to the form he had two years ago when he was being heralded as the next best young signal caller. He is facing mounting criticism, and if he doesn’t perform well against Detroit, he might hear some very loud boos in AT&T Stadium.
Prescott’s success is usually tied to how well running back Ezekiel Elliott does. If he can plow through the Lions’ run defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL, that will open up the passing game.
That should occur. This is as close to a must-win game the Cowboys will have this season. Expect them to deliver.
Take the Cowboys and give away the points.
5. Kansas City (-4.5) at Denver
A lot has been made of Kansas City and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and for good reason. The starting signal caller has led the Chiefs to a 3-0 record, including two relatively easy road wins.
Playing in Denver shouldn’t be that much of a concern for bettors. They have proven they can handle hostile environments, and will do so again on Monday night.
Take the Chiefs and give away the points.
