NASCAR drivers will be at its second super speedway of 2020 on Sunday at Talladega for the Geico 500. The race provides a tricky scenario for gamblers because of the wide-open nature of the 2.66-mile high-banked oval rack track, located east of Birmingham, Alabama.
Throw in tapered spacers for speed control, and the possibility of multi-car wrecks, and handicapping this race can be a headache. The one positive trend is Ford’s dominance at the Geico 500. They have won the eight of the last nine, and 11 of the last 15 at Talladega.
Odds to Win Geico 500
| Driver | William Hill | BetMGM | Bovada |
| Chase Elliott | 9/1 | 15/2 | 8/1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10/1 | 8/1 | 10/1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10/1 | 11/1 | 10/1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11/1 | 10/1 | 10/1 |
| Joey Logano | 11/1 | 9/1 | 9/1 |
| Kyle Busch | 12/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12/1 | 13/1 | 14/1 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 18/1 | 18/1 | 14/1 |
| Alex Bowman | 18/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 20/1 | 14/1 | 18/1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 22/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 25/1 | 20/1 | 22/1 |
| Aric Almirola | 25/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| Tyler Reddick | 25/1 | 25/1 | 22/1 |
| William Byron | 25/1 | 25/1 | 28/1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 30/1 | 30/1 | 35/1 |
| Bubba Wallace | 30/1 | 40/1 | 50/1 |
| Erik Jones | 30/1 | 30/1 | 33/1 |
| Austin Dillon | 35/1 | 40/1 | 35/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 40/1 | 40/1 | 35/1 |
| Matt Kenseth | 40/1 | 40/1 | 55/1 |
| Christopher Bell | 50/1 | 40/1 | 50/1 |
Brad Keselowski is the leader among active drivers with five victories. He told reporters, however, that there is a certain amount of luck involved at this track.
“You can make all the right moves, be in the right place and end up in the trash heap,†Keselowski said. “It seems like that’s been worse as of late. I don’t know why that is. Well, I do know why that is, but I don’t agree with why that is, but we’ll just try to survive if you can survive. Certainly, I feel like we have as good a chance as anyone else to win, if not better.â€
Still Keselowski is fetching good odds, and makes for a great value bet at the Geico 500. Who else should be on gamblers’ radars? We take a look at some drivers to back, and others to avoid.
Drivers to Back At Geico 500
Ryan Blaney (10/1)
Blaney always seems to be near the lead in super speedway races, and should be once again at the Geico 500. Oddsmakers at William Hill have reported that he has the second highest dollars wagered on him, so grab him before the odds go any lower.
Aric Almirola (25/1)
Almirola could be the best longshot selection in a while. The odds seem really high, considering the success he has had at Talladega. He has finished in the top 10 in the last three spring races, and won the fall contest in 2018. At 25/1, it is certainly worth taking a chance on him.
Drivers to Avoid
Joey Logano (10/1)
Logano has been in a bit of a slump since NASCAR came back from its postponement. He has just one finish in the top 5 in eight starts. Logano did win the Geico 500 in 2018, as well as finished fourth in 2019, but we are looking at poor finishes in the three races before that. He also tends to have an aggressive style, and that could burn him at this venue.
Martin Truex Jr. (18/1)
This race has not been traditionally Toyota’s best, and Truex Jr. certainly has a poor record at Talladega. In the last four spring races, his best finish is 13th.