Trends can be a helpful starting point when handicapping NFL games. In fact, some trends should carry added weight this time of year, because late-December matchups carry nearly a full season’s worth of data. Here’s a look at some noteworthy trends for NFL Week #17.
Let’s take a look at the key trends that apply to the final week of the NFL’s regular-season games, all of which take place this Sunday.
What the Numbers Say
Through the end of Week 16 (last Monday night’s game), road teams and underdogs have proven to be solid bets overall. However, road underdogs have really crushed the books. These win percentages are unprecedented. It remains to be seen if this past year was just an aberration or rather, a significant developing trend that so-called “home-field advantage” isn’t as big an edge as it used to be.
First, here’s a look at home versus away team against-the-spread:
All Home Teams: 101-132-7 ATS
All Road Teams: 132-101-7 ATSConclusion: Betting on road teams across-the-board has resulted in a 56.8 win-percentage.
Next, here’s a look at favorites versus underdogs against-the-spread:
All Favorites: 106-125-9 ATS
All Underdogs: 125-106-9 ATSConclusion: Betting on underdogs across-the-board has resulted in a 54.1 win-percentage.
Finally, here’s a look at road underdogs versus home favorites against-the-spread:
All Home Favorites: 58-84-7 ATS
All Road Underdogs: 84-58-7 ATSConclusion: Betting on road underdogs across-the-board has resulted in a 59.1 win-percentage.
It cannot be overstated how powerful a trend this has been in 2019, thus far.
The Week’s Road Underdogs
Week 17 provides bettors with six road underdogs, a lower number than usual since home teams are favored in a majority of games. The six dogss are:
- Washington +12 at Dallas
- NY Jets +1 at Buffalo
- LA Chargers +9 at Kansas City
- Miami +16.5 at New England
- Arizona +6 at LA Rams
- Oakland + 3.5 at Denver
Note: These lines are current at press time, Saturday afternoon. Some lines may change before kickoff.
Key Trends for Each Game
Now, let’s take a look at some of the broader trends which apply to spreads and totals across the league for this week’s games:
Tennessee at Houston
- Houston is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five meetings at home against Tennessee
- Tennessee has gone 8-1 to the “over” in its last nine games (since QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter)
Cleveland at Cincinnati
- Cleveland is 5-9-1 ATS in all games this season
- Cincinnati is 5-9-1 ATS in all games this season
- Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games in this series
Chicago at Minnesota
- Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games
- Chicago has gone 10-5 to the “under” this season
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
- Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
- Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 ATS at home this season
- Tampa Bay has gone 11-4 to the “over” this season
NY Jets at Buffalo
- Buffalo is 9-5-1 ATS in all games this season
- Buffalo has gone 11-4 to the “under” this season
Miami at New England
- Miami is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
- New England is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings at home versus Miami
Green Bay at Detroit
- Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
- Detroit has gone 10-5 to the “over” this season
LA Chargers at Kansas City
- LA Chargers are 4-11 ATS this season
- Kansas City has gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games
- Kansas City has gone 5-0 to the “under” in its last five games
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
- Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games
- Jacksonville is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight games in this series
Philadelphia at NY Giants
- Philadelphia is 6-9 ATS in all games this season
- NY Giants have gone 9-6 to the “over” this season
Washington at Dallas
- Washington is 6-9 ATS in all games this season
- Dallas has gone 9-6 to the “over” this season
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
- Baltimore is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games
- Baltimore is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games
- Pittsburgh has gone 12-3 to the “under” this season
Arizona at LA Rams
- LA Rams have gone 5-0 ATS in last five meetings against Arizona (all wins by 16 points or more)
- Arizona is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Oakland at Denver
- Denver is 9-3 ATS its last 12 games
- Oakland is 1-5 ATS its last six games
San Francisco at Seattle
- San Francisco is 6-1 ATS on the road this season
- Seattle is 2-5 ATS at home this season
Here’s one more powerful trend which is fully explained in this article posted earlier at OG: “NFL Week 17: Totals Trends Suggest Four Possible Under Wagers”
Important Note/Disclaimer: Please be aware that some games will not play according to norms this week, given that some teams have playoff spots already locked up and will rest starters.
Nolan Dalla can be reached directly at: nolandalla@gmail.com
