The Boston Celtics trail the Golden State Warriors 3-2 and are facing elimination heading into Game 6 tomorrow night in Boston. As a result, Game 6 offers some great individual player prop bets on Steph Curry, Jayson Tatum, and Klay Thompson for shooting 3-pointers to lock up a title, or stave off elimination.
Curry (41.7%) and Tatum (47.5%) are both shooting lights out from beyond the arc. Plus, there’s a reason why Thompson has the nickname “Game 6 Klay” because he often saves his best shooting performances for the often decisive Game 6.
We hinted that the NBA Finals would come down to a 3-point shooting contest, but wondered if the Warriors would be able to keep pace with the Celtics’ high-volume, long-range bombing attack. In total made treys, the Celtics (75) only have two more 3-pointers than the Warriors (73). The Celtics knocked down 40.5% of their 3-point attempts, while the Warriors connected on 35.6%.
In Game 6, 3-pointers carry a little more weight for the Celtics, who can’t afford to go cold again in the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Warriors could leverage their aerial attack to steal a Game 6 victory and snatch the championship on the road.
Steph Curry 4.5 o/u
It’s been the best of times and the worst of times for Curry in the last two games, yet the Warriors won both of them. Curry exploded for 43 points in Game 4 with seven 3-pointers. Then, he went ice cold in Game 5, shooting 0-for-9 with the Celtics selling out everything else to stop him. Curry has connected on at least one 3-point shot in every playoff game in his career, except in Game 5.
Curry is the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP, but he had an awful Game 5 and is looking to bounce back in Game 6. Will the Celtics continue to harass Curry in Game 6 or will he make up for his donut performance and shoot five or more 3-pointers? It’s -110 odds on Curry to make over 4.5 treys, and -105 for under 4.5 treys.
Jayson Tatum 3.5 o/u
It’s been night and day for Tatum in the NBA Finals. Beyond the arc, the Celtics’ leading scorer has been on fire, connecting on 19-for-40 for 47.5%. However, it’s been a nightmare for Tatum inside the arc, especially close to the rim. Tatum has been sensational shooting 3-pointers, but struggling with 2-pointers. He has a paltry 30.6% success rate on a bloody-awful 19-for-62. Will Tatum stick to his bread-and-butter offense in Game 6 and jack up a slew of 3-pointers? Or will the law of averages bless him so those runners and pull-up jumpers start falling?
Klay Thompson 3.5 o/u
Thompson is a sleeping giant who’s only sniping at 36.7% from downtown. He’s had a couple of unimpressive performances in the NBA Finals, yet there are individual possessions when Thompson is padding his highlight reel for Splash Brothers Greatest Hits.
The Celtics will zero in on Thompson early to make sure “Game 6 Klay” doesn’t light them up early and often like he did to the Memphis Grizzlies. If you want to back a historical trend, then it makes sense to place a prop bet on Thompson hitting 3.5 or more 3-pointers in Game 6. You have to lay -125 to bet Thompson over 3.5 treys, but it’s only +105 for under 3.5.
Jaylen Brown 2.5 o/u
Out of all of the Celtics who fire away from deep, Brown has the worst 3-point shooting percentage at 30.6%. Yet, that hasn’t slowed him down. The Celtics — especially Brown — have been plagued with excessive turnovers. It’s a pretty simple narrative in the NBA Finals, and the playoffs in general, for the Celtics because when they cough up the ball more than 16 times, they’re 1-7.
Although bad shots don’t count as a turnover, some coaches — like the legendary Gordan Chiesa — kept his own stat of shot-turnovers and then encouraged his players to reduce that stat by taking better shots. In Brown’s case, he’d send Chiesa on mega-tilt with his poor shot selection from beyond the arc.
Marcus Smart 2.5 o/u
If the Celtics want to extend the series and force a Game 7, they’ll need a fantastic game from Smart on both ends of the court. Smart is another streaky 3-point shooter, but he’s knocking down 40.6% of his attempts in the NBA Finals. Smart should be shooting more treys, and not Brown.
Jordan Poole 1.5 o/u
Poole had a great game off the bench in Game 5’s victory — including another long-range buzzer-beater to end a quarter — which is one of the reasons the Warriors were able to win with a subpar night from Curry. Poole is shooting 38.7% from 3-point range in the NBA Finals, but he never lets a couple of misses get inside his head.
He has a true shooter’s mentality where he forgets about the last shot and only thinks about the next one. It sounds like a line out of the basketball movie “Hustle” with Adam Sandler, but that’s why the Warriors love Poole; he’s confident that he won’t miss.
Andrew Wiggins 1.5 o/u
Wiggins earned all the accolades for stellar play in Game 5, but he’s another streaky 3-point shooter. He’s become a savvy veteran and will take whatever the defense gives him. However, his numbers aren’t impressive from long range, with a 25% success rate.
Al Horford 1.5 o/u
“Big Al” Horford leads the Celtics, knocking down 57.9% of his 3-pointers, so why doesn’t he shoot more? If the Warriors continue to swarm Tatum and lock down Brown, Horford will be wide open in Game 6. If he gets one look from downtown each quarter, he should connect on over 1.5 treys.
Derrick White 1.5 o/u
White tends to score in bunches. When he’s brimming with confidence, he provides the Celtics with an instant scoring boost off the bench. But when he’s not on his game, he’ll fade away into obscurity and pass the ball even if he has an open look.
The Celtics will need their role players and bench to help provide an additional offense, especially in the third quarter where they struggle the most. If White has a great Game 6, it’s going to include a couple of big treys.
Grant Williams 0.5 o/u
Williams is another major key to the Celtics staving off elimination in Game 6. When the Warriors ignore Williams on the perimeter, he has to make them pay by knocking down those open 3-pointers from the corner. Someone other than Tatum, Brown, and Smart will have to step up with a big offensive game. Williams has the skills to be that guy, but will he get the chance? It’s going to be feast or famine with Williams where he shoots blanks, or drills four treys.
Check out more coverage of the 2022 NBA playoffs.