If you like to bet NBA totals, the Miami Heat (25-15) are the best team in the league at hitting the over, while the Golden State Warriors (25-12-2) are the top team at hitting the under.
We’re approaching the mid-point of the season, with teams closing in at 40 games, and we’ve compiled a good sample size to know which teams to back or fade when it comes to betting the over/under. Trends offer bettors an important set of data because some bettors love to ride a trend hard, while others prefer to fade a trend.
The best under teams that hit at least 60% of the time are the Golden State Warriors (67.7%), Dallas Mavericks (65.8%), Cleveland Cavaliers (62.5%), and Oklahoma City Thunder (61.5%).
The best over teams surpassing 60% include the Miami Heat (62.5%) and Toronto Raptors (62.2%).
Best NBA overs: Heat, Raptors
The Miami Heat are the top over betting team in the NBA, despite being ranked #15 — or smack in the middle of the league — averaging 108.4 points per game. The public perception is that the Heat are a great defensive team and not the best scoring team without Bam Adebayo and a banged-up Jimmy Butler.
On defense, the Heat are the fourth-best in the NBA, allowing only 104.2 ppg. But, they score just enough to hit the over and exceed market expectations. The Heat hit the over in six consecutive games, and are 8-1 in their last nine games.
| NBA Betting Trends – Best Over Teams |
| Over Record |
S/U | ATS | |
| Miami Heat | 25-15 | 25-15 | 23-17 |
| Toronto Raptors | 23-14 | 20-17 | 29-17 |
| Houston Rockets | 24-18 | 11–31 | 17-24-1 |
The Toronto Raptors are trending upwards after a slow start. They won six games in a row and went 11-4 since the start of December. During their recent upswing, the Raptors increased their scoring average to 108.2 ppg and rank #16 in scoring behind the Heat. Just like the Heat, the Raptors are just ahead of the market while flying under the radar. They recently had a 10-0 run hitting the overs before that streak ended against the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday. Overall, they have a 23-14 over record.
Best NBA unders: Warriors, Mavs
The Golden State Warriors (30-9) are tied for the best overall record, and are ranked #4 betting-wise with a 30-9 ATS clip. In totals betting, the Warriors are the top team in hitting the under. They’re a classic case of duping the square bears who assume the Warriors are a high-octane scoring team, while the public underestimates their defensive prowess.
The Warriors finally got Klay Thompson back in the lineup for the first time since 2019, but it will take a while before he’s back to his old self. Before his return, the Warriors averaged only 109.8 ppg and were ranked 10th in the league. On defense, Steve Kerr has the Warriors putting the clampdown on opponents night after night. They allow only 100.9 ppg, which is good for the best scoring defense in the NBA.
The Warriors are ranked #1 in opponent field goal percentage at 52.5%, and rank #2 in defending the 3-pointer with opponents connecting on only 32.5% of their treys.
| NBA Betting Trends – Best Under Teams |
| Under Record |
S/U | ATS | |
| Golden State Warriors | 25-12-2 | 30-9 | 23-14-2 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 25-13-2 | 22-18 | 21-19 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 25-15-1 | 23-18 | 26-13-2 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 24-15 | 12–26 | 25-14 |
The Dallas Mavericks boast the second-best defense in the league, allowing 103.3 ppg. They’ve struggled on offense and score just 105.8 ppg, which is seventh-lowest in the league. Luka Doncic is slightly off this season while nursing an ankle injury and a bout of COVID. The combo of a great defense and a lackluster offense translates into a 25-13-2 record at hitting the under or second-best in the NBA.
The Cavs have a strong under record due to their defense that allows 102.5 ppg. They’re stacked with big men, especially rookie of the year candidate Evan Mobley.