The Green Bay Packers (13-3) are the consensus favorites on the NFL futures board to win the NFC Championship. The Packers are +140 odds to win the NFC, followed by the New Orleans Saints at +275 and the Tampa Bay Bucs at +400.
The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC Championship title game last year by defeating the Packers. However, for the second season in a row, the NFC representative in the Super Bowl failed to qualify for the postseason. The Rams lost in Super Bowl 53 and bubbled the postseason last year. The Niners lost in Super Bowl 54 and whiffed on securing a wild-card spot this season. The Super Bowl hangover is a real phenomenon in the NFC.
| NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES |
- Green Bay Packers +140
- New Orleans Saints +275
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400
- Seattle Seahawks +600
- Los Angeles Rams +1300
- Chicago Bears +4000
- Washington Football Team +4000
The Packers advanced to the NFC title game last year, but they couldn’t stop the Niners from running down their throats. The Packers’ defense is still shaky, but much improved from last season. In addition, Aaron Rodgers is playing some of his best football in a decade. Rodgers is the betting favorite to win his third MVP award, but he’s on a mission to win the NFC and secure a spot in the Super Bowl.
Right now, the Packers are +450 odds to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings.
Green Bay Top Seed in NFC
Green Bay’s high-octane offense leads the league, averaging 31.8 points per game. The Packers are tough to defend against because they can beat you on the ground and in the air. Aaron Jones missed two games with an injury, but he still posted a career-high with 1,104 rushing yards. He scored nine rushing touchdowns and added two more touchdown receptions. He caught 47 passes for 355 additional yards.
Rodgers led the NFL with 48 touchdowns and only tossed five interceptions. He only threw for 40-plus touchdowns twice before, including a previous career-high of 45 touchdowns in 2011. Rodgers finished the season above 4K once again with 4,299 passing yards and a 70.7% completion rate. Green Bay’s offensive line should get a lot of love because they allowed only 20 sacks this season, down from 36 in 2019, and down from 49 in 2018.
On defense, the Packers are ranked #7 in passing defense. In terms of DVOA, the Packers are below average and ranked #17. But they make up for it with a top-ranked offensive DVOA. Overall, Green Bay is ranked #3 in total DVOA.
Overrated: Tom Brady Effect
Ever since the Bucs signed Tom Brady, money tumbled in on Tampa futures. Their Super Bowl odds took a huge bump, along with their NFC title odds. You can back Brady and the Bucs at +400 to win the NFC Championship.
Brady delivered the Bucs a playoff berth, but can they make a run in the postseason? When you have the GOAT, anything is possible. The stat dorks love to point out that Tampa is ranked #2 in total DVOA, including a second-ranked offense and a fifth-ranked defense led by Todd Bowles. Tampa is only 2-5 against teams with a winning record.
NFC Futures: Any Value on Seattle or New Orleans?
The New Orleans Saints (12-4) finished the season with the #2 seed, despite losing Drew Brees for multiple games while recovering from cracked ribs. They were also without Michael Thomas, who missed nine games with multiple injuries. The Saints still won 12 games thanks to the top-rated DVOA defense in the NFL. The Saints hope they can get Alvin Kamara off the CVOID-19 list and back in time for Sunday’s wild-card game against the Chicago Bears.
With whispers all over Who Dat nation that this will be Brees’ final season, can he win one last Super Bowl before he retires? The Saints are the second-highest on the futures board at +275 to win the NFC.
Will Russell Wilson put on his cape and play the role of Superman this postseason? Despite a hot start, the Seattle Seahawks (12-4) cooled off in the second half of the season. They still won the NFC West and secured the #3 seed.
Without any fans, the Seahawks lose their daunting home-field advantage. The Seahawks are +600 to win the NFC, but they’ll have to defeat the LA Rams in the wild-card game to stay alive. Then they’ll have to defeat both New Orleans and Green Bay in the ensuing rounds. Seattle is only 3-3 this season against winning teams.
Underrated: Sean McVay and the LA Rams
After a misstep last season, the LA Rams are back in the playoffs. If Jared Goff’s thumb is still ailing him, the good news is that backup John Wofford looked great in a Week 17 victory over the Arizona Cardinals to secure an NFC wild-card spot. Sean McVay is tough to play against in the postseason, which is why the Seattle Seahawks have a tough draw with the Rams on Saturday.
The Rams would make a great sleeper pick at +1300 to win the NFC Championship because no one will see them coming. The Rams are anchored by a defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL at 18.5 ppg. They are ranked #9 overall in DVOA, but their defense is ranked #4 overall.
NFC Betting Long Shots: Da Bears and WFT
Will the Superfans back Da Bears this year? Probably not. Credit Chicago for having enough survival skills to secure the final NFC wild-card spot, but they lack the firepower to keep up with the Saints. Chicago is one of the two long shots on the NFC futures board at +4000, along with Washington.
If you’re looking for a feel-good story this season, look no further than Alex Smith. He battled his way back from a life-threatening injury to simply walk again. The fact he’s even playing pro football is a small miracle. Hollywood couldn’t have scripted a better narrative. Although, a Super Bowl berth would be the ultimate Hollywood ending to cap off Smith’s comeback story.
Washington won the NFC East, which secured them a home playoff game. Washington comes into the wild-card round as a +8.5 home dog against Brady and the Bucs. Bruce Arians summed up Tampa Bay’s opponent succinctly when he said, “We’re not playing against Haskins. Washington is 4-1 with Alex Smith. That’s the team we’re playing.”
Check out our article on the recently updated AFC Conference betting futures.
