Since 2003, at least one favorite on NFL Wild Card Weekend has lost, and this Saturday and Sunday was no different. This time, though, two of the four NFL Wild Card Weekend games saw the favorite go down.
The biggest upset of the four games was Minnesota shocking New Orleans in the Superdome on Sunday, 26-20 in overtime. The Saints closed as a 7-point favorite, the biggest line of any of the four games.
The line got as high as 8 points, and the sharps hammered it. One bettor at the SouthPoint in Las Vegas put down $110,000 on Minnesota, and won $100,000.
Scott Shelton at the Mirage in Las Vegas said two gamblers placed big bets on Minnesota. One had $80,000 on the Vikings, and another plunked down $110,000, forcing the sportsbook to adjust the spread to 7.5.
Even though the line moved down a majority of the money was on New Orleans. William Hill reported that 73 percent of the spread bets made on the game were on the Saints, and they got 78 percent of the money.
Bet Labs had a stat saying since 2003, when a playoff team received a majority of bets but the line moves against them they have gone 24-39-1 against the spread.
Under Hits Big on Wild Card Weekend
For the first time since 2012, the under hit in all four games on Wild Card Weekend. It was only the third time that has happened since the Wild Card Weekend format was expanded in 1990. The other time, according to ESPN Stats & Info, was 1999.
Bettors went with the under in three of the four games. William Hill reported that the Buffalo-Houston game got the most interest on the under, with 97 percent of the money bet. Seattle-Philadelphia got 68 percent, and Tennessee-New England got 65 percent.
Buffalo-Houston was the closest of the three of reaching the over. The line was set at 43, and the Texans won, 22-19 in overtime.
There was no doubt on the other two games. Tennessee-New England had an over/under of 45, and the Titans won, 20-13. Seattle-Philadelphia’s over/under was 44.5, and the Seahawks won, 17-9.
The one game that the bettors took the over was Minnesota-New Orleans. William Hill had 82 percent of the money on the over. The line even rose from an opening of 48.5 to 50 points at game time.
Profitable Props Pay Off for Playoffs
Bovada had two prop bets based on Wild Card Weekend. The first was which quarterback would have the most passing yards. Drew Brees of the Saints was the favorite at +150. Seattle’s Russell Wilson was at +400, and won with 325 passing yards.
The other Bovada prop bet was most receiving yards. Again it was a Saints player that was the favorite. Michael Thomas was +175, but only finished with 70 yards. The winner was Seattle’s DK Metcalf, who was on the board at +900, and had 160 receiving yards.
Another bet that paid off well was the first player to score in the Buffalo-Houston game. Bills quarterback Josh Allen was at +1300 to score the first touchdown of the game. He caught a pass on a trick play from receiver John Brown four minutes into the game.
Stat of the Game
Going into their Wild Card Weekend game Buffalo was 6-0-2 against the spread on the road during the 2019 regular season. Houston was 1-4 both straight up and against the spread over its past five playoff games.
