The NL Wild Card is still wide open with 50 games remaining in the schedule. The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are currently sitting in the two NL Wild Card spot, but the St. Louis Cardinals are only a half-game back and the NY Mets are red-hot and surging. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers are sliding and their Wild Card hopes are fading.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants did not trade away Madison Bumgarner. Even though the LA Dodgers are running away with the NL West, it looks like the Giants are going to give the Wild Card a go in Bruce Bochy’s final season as a manager before he steps down.
The American League Wild card has narrowed itself down to a three-team race, whereas the NL Wild Card is still up for grabs with at least ten teams with a chance at landing one of the top two spots. In reality, seven teams have a shot with the NL East and NL Central teams on the inside track.
NL WILD CARD:
Washington 59-53
Philadelphia 59-53
———–
St. Louis 58-53
Milwaukee 58-56
NY Mets 57-56
Arizona 56-57
SF Giants 56-57
The Brewers have a hard enough job fighting in the NL Central, but they also have to fight a half-dozen teams for a Wild Card spot.
The Mets are getting hot at the right time. The team did not deal Thor or Zack Wheeler before the deadline, while adding Marcus Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays.
Two teams are played below .500, yet still in contention of the Wild Card. But the Giants and Diamondbacks are 56-57 and only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card hunt.
The Best from the NL East
The Atlanta Braves are still 8/1 odds to win the World Series. The Braves lead the NL East, but the Phillies and Nationals are fighting for second place. The team that finishes in third place either the Nats or Phillies, will probably bubble the NL Wild Card.
The Nats have been holding on with Max Scherzer’s health in question. They will need their ace in October if they want to be a legit threat in the NL Wild Card.
Then again, they need him now to help pad their lead in the Wild Card with the NL Central teams and Mets within striking distance.
According to FanGraphs, the Braves are 81.1 percent chance to win the NL East. The Nats have a 14.4 percent chance to get hot and catch the Braves pending a collapse.
FanGraphs ran the Wild Card numbers and the Nats have a 61 percent chance to win the Wild Card. The Mets actually have better numbers than the Phillies. The Mets are 30 percent chance to win the Wild Card while Bryce Harper and the Phillies are only 23 percent chance to lock up the Wild Card.
NL Central Still (Still) Tight
The NL Central race was five deep a month ago. The Red and Pirates have been beating each other up while the top three teams pulled away. The Red and Pirates are currently battling for the basement. However, the Brewers are closer to the Reds in fourth place than El Mago and the Cubbies in first place.
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs 61-51
St. Louis Cardinals 58-53
Milwaukee Brewers 58-56
The Cubs continue their winning ways at Wrigley Field (40-18). Only the Dodgers (45-15) have a better home record in the NL.
According to FanGraphs, the Cubs are 76 percent lock to win the NL Central outright while the St, Louis Cardinals have a 15.7 percent chance to pull off the late-season heroics to win the division.
The Cardinals have a 25.6 percent chance to win the Wild Card according to FanGraphs. The Brew Crew’s numbers slipped drastically. The Brewers are only a 15.4 percent chance to win the Wild Card.