Though famed Mexican cartel leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman has escaped from prison twice, one oddsmaker believes it won’t happen a third time. MyBookie.com has the odds of him breaking out of the slammer at +2000 for yes, and -1000 for no.
It is one of several proposition bets the offshore sportsbook is offering in relation to the notorious drug kingpin. At one point it is believed that Guzman was responsible for 25 percent of the drugs brought into the United States.
Guzman is on trial in a federal court in Brooklyn, NY, facing 17 counts including conspiracy to import and possess with intent to distribute cocaine, money laundering, and homicide. If convicted he could receive a life sentence.
Two Previous Jailbreaks
“El Chapo,” which is Mexican slang for shorty, has convicted of crimes in Mexico since the mid 1980s, but managed to break out of prison on two occasions. The first was in 2001 when he bribed guards and escaped in a laundry cart. The second time was in 2014, when members of the Sinaloa Cartel dug a tunnel to the prison for their boss, and he fled through a hole in his shower.
He was recaptured in 2016, and extradited to the United States in January of 2017. He is held at the maximum-security wing of the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan and bussed under heavy security to his trial. US officials are taking extreme measures to make sure Guzman doesn’t flee again.
The trial is expected to take months, and MyBookie has a prop bet that he will die in custody before the trial ends. The yes is +500, while the no is at  -900.
Fate of Guzman in Jury’s Hands
Before the trial began on Nov. 5, federal prosecutors have said they are convinced they can prove Guzman was the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, running the empire ruthlessly, and ordering the murders of several men.
“Starting in the 1980s, the defendant systematically kidnapped, assaulted, tortured and murdered individuals who threatened the success of his drug tracking activity,†federal prosecutors said in a court filing.
In an agreement with the Mexican government, Guzman was allowed to be brought to the US if the death penalty wasn’t sought. Instead prosecutors will seek life in prison without the possibility of parole.
MyBookie has that as the -350 favorite. Life with possibility of parole is at +300, and another verdict, including not guilty is at +1000.
Being found guilty, though, is what MyBookie believes will happen. A guilty verdict is at -700, while not guilty is at +400. With the list of witnesses the prosecution plans to bring up to testify, including former top lieutenant Miguel Angel Martinez, it would appear the evidence is overwhelming.
What happens to Guzman if he is found guilty is the subject of two prop bets. The first is will he die of natural causes in prison. The yes is +200, while the no is -300. The other wager is will he write a book. Both the yes and no is at -120.