Political Betting Odds Shift, Democrats the New Favorite in 2020 US Presidential Election

For the first time since 2016, the Democratic party has become the political betting favorite to win the US Presidential election in 2020.

Odds have been narrowing slowly for the past 12 months, ever since the Democratic primary season kicked off in earnest. Democrats pulled even about two weeks ago. Since then, according to political betting odds, the Dems have inched ahead of Republicans for the first time since the huge field of nearly two dozen candidates began to form.

Actions or inaction by both parties in Washington DC and on the campaign trail certainly have an effect on the voters. As the number of undecided voters steadily fall, odds become easier to set.

Those odds were fairly steady in the Republicans’ favor since early 2019, but the last three postings have shown a significant swing in the political betting line.

Democratic Party Takes the Lead

Democratic frontrunners have, in many ways, been determined by who polls best heads-up against Donald Trump. Recent headlines have shown the top five candidates polling ahead of President Donald Trump in one-on-one survey battles, including a Fox News poll released Thursday that showed the top five candidates ahead of Trump by anywhere from two to 12 percentage points.

The betting odds shifted accordingly, but what’s different with this latest round of odds updates is that the Democrats, as a party, are ahead of Republicans for winning the Presidential election.

Money Line, 2020 US Presidential Election Winning Party (any candidate)

March 15, 2019

Democratic Party  -170
Republican  +150

August 31, 2019
Democratic Party  +110
Republican Party -120

September 9, 2019
Democratic Party  -115
Republican Party  -115

September 19, 2019
Democratic Party  -125 
Republican Party  -105 

source: Bovada

Strong Betting Contenders Emerge

Because the Democrats still have 19 candidates running in the primary field, the odds on which individual will win the election still show a wide margin for Trump. This makes for some interesting betting possibilities for those who think they have an edge on reading the political tea leaves. If the Democrats really are heading for a win, why not take a shot at one of the top candidates still showing long shot odds to win the White House?

US Presidential Election 2020 – Odds to Win by Candidate

September 9, 2019

Donald Trump  +110
Elizabeth Warren  +425
Joe Biden  +500
Bernie Sanders  +900
Kamala Harris  +1600

September 19, 2019

Donald Trump  +105  
Elizabeth Warren +400  
Joe Biden +550  
Bernie Sanders +950  
Andrew Yang +1500
Kamala Harris +1600  

Notice that, in the most recent odds, that both Trump and Sen. Warren have shorter odds as odds on the other Democrats in the race are moving longer.

Long Shot and Fantasy Presidential Candidate Odds

Not to forget the long-shots in the Presidential race. Here are odds on candidates both declared and fanciful.

Pete Buttigieg*  +2500
Hillary Clinton  +5000
Cory Booker*  +6000
Mike Pence**  +6000
Tulsi Gabbard*  +6000
Beto O’Rourke*  +10000
Julian Castro*  +10000
Nikki Haley**  +10000
Amy Klobuchar*  +12500
John Kasich**  +15000
Michelle Obama  +15000
Tim Kaine*  +15000
Howard Schultz +20000
Marianne Williamson*  +20000
Mitt Romney**  +20000
Oprah Winfrey  +20000
Ted Cruz**  +20000
Tom Steyer*  +20000
Marco Rubio**  +25000
Mark Cuban  +25000
Tammy Duckworth  +25000
Trey Gowdy**  +25000
Jeb Bush  +30000
George Clooney  +90000
Kanye West  +90000
Mark Sanford***  off the board
William Weld***  off the board
Joe Walsh***  off the board

*declared Democratic party candidate
**undeclared Republican
***declared Republican