When news broke that Tom Brady was signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it was a shock to many Patriots fans who lost the quarterback that guided one of the most successful dynasties in NFL history. But the move also upended the 2020 NFL futures market, as both the Bucs and the Pats saw their numbers change significantly right after the signing.
While odds varied, sportsbooks were generally offering Tampa Bay at around +4000 or +5000 to win the Super Bowl before the signing was announced.
Bucs Rise, Pats Fall After Brady Moves
Today, that number has shortened dramatically. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the Buccaneers at just +1800 now that Brady is at the helm, making them fifth overall on the board to win the next Super Bowl.
That’s not to say that anyone thinks Tampa Bay is the favorite to win a title. Even with Brady, the Bucs are far behind the leading favorites, such as the Kansas City Chiefs (+650), Baltimore Ravens (+700), and San Francisco 49ers (+1300). But it’s a testament to just how much respect Brady still has among bettors that he can influence the odds so dramatically, even at 42 years of age.
On the other hand, the Patriots’ chances of winning the next Super Bowl have been in a freefall. Since Brady left, they went from a contender – typically seeing odds of around +1200 – to a dark horse, albeit one that should still be fighting for a playoff spot. FanDuel now lists New England as a +2000 pick to win the Super Bowl.
Tom Brady has changed the odds in the AFC East. pic.twitter.com/sUq7LV9eUM
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) March 17, 2020
The biggest beneficiary of Tom Brady’s departure may be the Buffalo Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook still favors New England to win the AFC East, but now sees it as a tight, two-team race between New England and Buffalo – with even the Jets and Dolphins having better odds than before the news broke.
More Players May Take Their Talents to Tampa
Some of the excitement around the Bucs may stem from rumors that the Brady signing could lead more players to join the team. ESPN’s Adam Schefter cited league sources on Thursday who said that “a number of players†had contacted Tampa Bay to say they are interested in playing there.
Schefter also reported that the Bucs and Brady were still working out language in the contract, something that is fraught with difficulty because of both the new collective bargaining agreement and the unknown impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Some sportsbooks are also offering a range of Brady prop bets. For instance, FanDuel has offered over/under totals on Brady’s passing yards (4399.5), passing touchdowns (29.5), and interceptions (10.5). Bettors can also pick whether the Patriots (-138) or the Buccaneers (+118) will collect more wins in the regular season. As a sign of the times, though, all of these bets are void if the NFL doesn’t play a full 16-game regular season.
