Online gambling site Bookmaker.eu is out more than a quarter-million dollars after 92 percent of bettors took the over on President Donald Trump making more than 3.5 false statements during his Tuesday address on the government shutdown and border security from the Oval Office.
The online betting site used the Washington Post’s Fact Checker as its official guide to how many falsehoods appeared in the speech. In the end, the paper had to make six corrections to “alternative facts†made by the president, far over the total set by Bookmaker.
Corrections Pile Up Quickly in Eight-Minute Speech
That line clearly came as a surprise to most bettors. While where one sits on the political spectrum might determine how charitably they interpret Trump’s less-than-accurate statements, there’s almost unanimous agreement that he’s not one to be constrained by the truth when speaking publicly.
That fact didn’t escape Bookmaker, which set odds of -145 on the over, while offering +115 if the president lied fewer than 3.5 times. It seems that the oddsmaker simply thought the specifics of this speech would limit just how far Trump would try to stretch the truth.
“We figured the president’s strategy going in would be a bit of fear mongering to create pressure on the Democrats to approve the funding of the wall (of barrier), however the president was also constrained by an approximate eight-minute time limit,†Bookmaker odds consultant John Lester told BuzzFeed News. “With all the cable networks agreeing to air the speech, it came down to, how many times is the president willing to exaggerate the truth to accomplish his agenda, when he knows the world will be scrutinizing his every word?â€
The answer, apparently, was quite a lot – something that became obvious almost immediately after the start of the speech.
“We knew we were in trouble early with this one,†Lester said.
Five-Figure Wagers Come in on the Over
Bookmaker set a fairly generous maximum bet of $2,000 on the political prop bet, but some gamblers were able to get even more action. According to Lester, some clients requested larger bets, with one wagering $25,000 on the over.
In the end, Lester said, he doesn’t think that the oddsmakers did that poor a job, since the final total was at least in the ballpark of the 3.5 total.
“Never has a president made winning so easy for Americans,†Lester told The Action Network. “92 percent of the action favored the over, and the President did not disappoint the public.â€
The six mistruths that were counted for the purposes of the prop bet were those pointed out during a live fact check of Trump’s speech from the Oval Office. The statements were largely repeats of claims the president has made in the past, with fact checkers from many organizations having shown them to lack veracity on multiple occasions.
Included in the total were claims that a wall on the Mexican border would impact drug trafficking (most of which comes through legal ports of entry), that the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada would pay for the wall, and a misleading claim about how many children are brought into the country illegally.