In a day of testimony before the US Senate Judiciary Committee that left millions of viewers transfixed for hours, the odds of Judge Brett Kavanaugh being confirmed to the Supreme Court proved nearly as volatile as the proceedings themselves.
The Judiciary Committee first heard from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who answered questions related to a sexual assault Kavanaugh allegedly committed against her while the two were still in high school. Afterwards, Kavanaugh addressed the Senators, vehemently denying the allegations and all other accusations of sexual misconduct that have been made against him.
Odds Plummet During Ford’s Testimony
The two witnesses offered a striking contrast in their testimonies. Ford frequently apologized for information she might not have, saying she wished she could be more helpful. Her testimony was composed yet stirring, and even Republican lawmakers said afterwards that they had no reason not to find her truthful and credible, even if they were not convinced of exactly what had happened to her.
“I am here today not because I want to be,” Ford said in her opening statement. “I am terrified. I am here because I believe it is my civic duty to tell you what happened to me while Brett Kavanaugh and I were in high school.”
That testimony had a major impact on betting markets and exchanges. According to a report by The Action Network, Kavanaugh had become an underdog to be confirmed at several sportsbooks at that point, with odds ranging from +115 to +300 for him to be placed on the Supreme Court. During that testimony, the PredictIt prediction market also saw Kavanaugh’s presumed chances drop to below 40 percent.
Kavanaugh Response Bolsters Support
But that changed after Kavanaugh’s testimony. In a display that was angry, defiant, and impassioned, the nominee not only denied any connection with the allegations against him, but also frequently lashed out at Democratic committee members, and at one point suggested that the efforts to prevent him from reaching the Supreme Court stemmed from a decades-old grudge.
“This whole two-week effort has been a calculated and orchestrated political hit fueled with apparent pent-up anger about President Trump and the 2016 election, fear that has been unfairly stoked about my judicial record,” he said in his opening statement. “Revenge on behalf of the Clintons and millions of dollars in money from outside left-win opposition groups. This is a circus.”
While the tenor of the testimony may have been divisive to audiences, it appeared to have the effect of shoring up support among moderate Republicans who may have been wavering on the nominee in the face of the allegations. By the time it was over, Kavanaugh was listed as a heavy favorite to be confirmed as the next Supreme Court Justice, with Bovada listing him as a -290 favorite on Thursday evening, according to the Action Network.
As of midday on Friday, Bovada was not posting odds on the confirmation, likely due to the Judiciary Committee vote scheduled for 1:30 pm Eastern time. However, PredictIt was offering shares on Kavanaugh to the next Supreme Court justice at $0.75, equating to perceived 75 percent chance that he would be confirmed.
Presuming that Judge Kavanaugh is approved by the Judiciary Committee, as is expected, his nomination could be voted on by the entire Senate early next week. To be confirmed, he will need to receive 51 votes, with Vice President Mike Pence casting the tiebreaking vote in the case of a 50-50 split.