As Election Prop Bets Flourish, Political Wagers are No Sure Thing

The US Presidential race will be finished in a week, though it’s possible we’ll have to wait at least a little while to know who the winner is. In anticipation of an ongoing election battle, overseas sites like Bovada, BetOnline, and Ladbrokes are seeing brisk business on the US election, and the prop bets they’re offering are expanding, and getting more creative. 

These books are taking action on everything from whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win the popular vote to an over/under on voter turnout. Some of the more exotic election prop bets can be found at MyBookie, which is offering odds on when the loser will concede the election, to Bovada’s irreverent wager on who would win a hypothetical physical fight between Trump (-165) and Biden (+125).

Of course, that bet will probably never pay off, since it is unlikely the two septuagenarians would ever tussle, either in or out of a boxing ring or steel cage. 

Day (EST) Loser Concedes Election?

Dave Mason, sportsbook brand manager for BetOnline, told OG News that election prop bets have become one of the site’s more popular offerings.

“Political betting just keeps getting bigger,” Mason said. “It used to be kind of a niche event with moderate limits. Since 2016, these get big time action. Lots of five-figure bets coming in on both sides. We are getting massive action on the political odds … especially the odds to win, and the states as well.”

Some Prop Bets Worry Oddsmakers

Mason said the wagers that could sportsbooks are those that could come from states where Trump is a long shot to win.

“The public obviously sees more value on Trump than Biden,” Mason said.

If he surprises people like he did in 2016, the sportsbooks could have to cough up a lot of money. 

Top Five Potential Liabilities for BetOnline

• Trump wins Maine +550
• Trump wins New Hampshire +250
• Trump wins Michigan +200
• Trump wins Colorado +700
• Trump wins Pennsylvania +160

Even though Pennsylvania is favored to go to Biden, Trump carried the Keystone State in 2016 by just more than 44,000 votes — less than a percentage point over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The state-by-state political prop bets proved to be so popular that Mason bumped the limits to $1,000, and said there will be another bump this weekend.

State-by-state political limits getting bumped to $1,000 in a few.

Will be another bump this weekend. pic.twitter.com/Crp2x60pDl

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 26, 2020

Trump winning every state he carried in 2016 is considered unlikely. In addition to Pennsylvania trending toward Biden, Arizona (-140) Michigan (-260), and Wisconsin (-220) are battleground states also leaning toward the Democratic candidate. Trump won all four of those states in 2016.

To Win the Most States  

• Trump 5/4
• Tie 25-25 (Not Including Washington, DC)
• Biden 2/1

Source: Ladbrokes

In 2016, Trump lost 19 states. Bovada has a prop bet on both the president winning or losing the 19 states he lost in 2016.

Will Trump Lose Every State He Lost in 2016?

• Yes -260
• No +200

Will Trump Win Every State He Lost in 2016?

• Yes +400
• No -700

Election Odds and Ends 

Mason said creating his site’s election prop bets is a process that the staff works on well before Nov. 3.

“When it comes to the unique stuff, there are a few of us who fire ideas off of one another,” Mason said. “We are looking for things that are buzz-worthy and topical, try to make some noise, and take some action at the same time. This politics stuff is so viral. People love talking about it and betting. Once we come up with some ideas we try to come up with the odds next.”

One popular BetOnline offering is on a Democratic sweep: Will the Democrats win the presidency, house, and senate? “Yes” is at -125 and “No” is at -105.

Ladbrokes didn’t want to leave out various third-party candidates in it’s offerings …

Who Will Finish Third in the US Presidential Election?

• Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) -1600
• Kanye West (Independent) +1200
• Howie Hawkins (Green) +1500