It seems like a no-brainer to select the Buffalo Bills as your Survivor Pool pick in Week 4 because the Bills are nearly a 17-point favorite against the Houston Texans, but don’t overlook the Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints, and Cincinnati Bengals as potential selections.
After three weeks, your survivor pool is taking shape after weeding out the unfortunate souls who were Week 1 knockouts, and any causalities in Week 2 and Week 3.
So far this season, we advanced with the LA Rams (Week 1), Cleveland Browns (Week 2), and Denver Broncos (Week 3).
| Week 4 Survivor Picks |
| Matchup | Pick | Line |
| Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1) | Bills | BUF -16.5 |
| Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3) | Titans | TENN -7 |
| New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1) | Saints | NO -7.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) | Bengals | CIN -7.5 |
As expected, the popular Survivor picks in Week 4 all include opponents of the worst teams in the league who are a combined 1-11, including the New York Jets (0-3), New York Giants (0-3), Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3), and Houston Texans (1-2).
Consensus: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills (2-1) looked like legit Super Bowl contenders over the past two weeks. Their pass-first offense led by Josh Allen looks unstoppable, which is bad news for the Houston Texans (1-2). If the Texans didn’t get an easy Week 1 opponent with the Jacksonville Jaguars, they’d also get lumped in with the rest of the 0-3 scrubs.
So far this season, fading bottom feeders like the Jaguars and Jets allowed us to advance twice in our Survivor pool. It’s time to fade the Texans for the first time. The Bills are the biggest favorite on the betting board at -16.5, which also set the season high-water mark in the NFL. You can follow the herd and back the Bills in Week 4, or reserve them for a late-season Survivor pick.
Beta: New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints (2-1) have been on the road since August 28. That’s not a typo. The team was displaced by Hurricane Ida and migrated to Forth Worth, Texas, where they shared a practice facility with TCU. The Saints had Week 1’s home game against Green Bay relocated to Jacksonville, where the Saints whooped the Packers in the season opener. The Saint spent the last two weeks on the road playing the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots. They finally returned to New Orleans after a month away from the Big Easy.
The Saints are eager to play their first full home game at the Superdome in front of their devout fans and hurricane-ravished members of Who Dat Nation. The New York Giants (0-3) flat-out suck, which is why they’re underdogs by a touchdown. If the LOL Jets weren’t so horrible, the Giants would be skewered by the local NYC media. The Giants are unfortunate lambs being led to the slaughter inside the Superdome.
If you want to avoid the obvious selection in Week 4 and save the popular Bills (after all, they play the Jets twice), then the Saints are a solid alternative pick in your Survivor pool.
Fade the LOLJets
If you want to fade the LOL Jets each week, then fire away at the Tennessee Titans (2-1). Sure, you typically want to avoid selecting road teams in Survivor pools, but in this case, you can waive that rule because the Jets’ ineptitude supersedes all logic.
The Jets (0-3) and their anemic offense have steadily declined since the season began. They were shut out by the Denver Broncos in an ugly game that seemed more lopsided than the 24-0 final score. The Jets also lost their top defensive player, Marcus Maye, who needs a month to recover from a badly sprained ankle, which happened during the Broncos game.
Even the kid with last week’s Jets viral video breakdown is back, but he’s giving up on the Jets after three weeks.
Outside the Box: Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) on Thursday Night Football and are the favorites by a touchdown. Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence and head coach Urban Meyer have a short week to prepare for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
This week’s TNF is billed as a shootout between two young guns and #1 picks in the NFL Draft. Burrow, the top pick from 2020, looked sharp in his first month as a rookie with the Bengals last September. Lawrence, on the other hand, looks like a bust after being selected first by the Jags in the 2021 NFL Draft.
It’s not Lawrence’s fault. Meyer is out of his depth, which spells utter disaster for the Jaguars. Pray for their flimsy offensive line, which might get Lawrence decapitated by Week 8 if they don’t start blocking better.
If you want to wander off the beaten path and select a team that most Survivor pools won’t pick, then consider the Bengals. You can even blindly pick them for the sole reason they’re playing the lowly Jags while saving the Bills, Saints, or Titans for your Survivor pick later in the season.