Four minutes, four lousy minutes. That’s all it took to turn a happy watcher of the World Cup into someone who was bitter as an imaginary sports bettor can be.
As part of OG’s coverage for Russia 2018, we’ve introduced a column tentatively called “Five Bets.” In it, as a guy paying close attention to World Cup odds and how they fluctuate, I share with you five wagers that look promising for delivering a nice return on investment.
To give me a little skin in the game, I placed a pretend $10 on each to either share your joy or feel your pain, and up until last weekend, I was holding my own. Saturday, though, sent me to the rail grumbling about three bad beats.
Christiano Ronaldo Delivers
We started Five Bets in the second round of group play. After the first two came through, it seemed like this could be too easy.
The first two bets revolved around Portugal vs. Morocco. I had Portugal +500 to score in the first 10 minutes, and that Cristiano Ronaldo, at +125 would be the first to score. Pretty solid handicapping as I was right on, and picked up $62.50 thanks to that one goal in the 4th minute.
Playing on the house’s dime, it didn’t bother me too much when the other three bets didn’t come in. I was banking on Uruguay vs. Saudi Arabia delivering a similar two-fer by betting the over at 4.5 and that Uruguay would score four goals. Alas, the game ended as a 1-1 draw. My last bet was on Iran at +190 to score a goal against Spain, but they came up empty.
In total, on my first round of Five Bets, I put “smart money” on $50, and won $62.50, for a profit of $12.50, or a 25 percent ROI.
Hypothetical Heartbreak
I thought I was pretty smart when I bet another imaginary $10 on the first goal in the Australia vs. Denmark game to be scored by either team from outside the penalty box.
At 11/2, had Christian Eriksen been two steps back I would have collected a tidy $55. Instead it was an ominous sign of close calls, near misses, and bad beats to come.
I also put too much faith in Brazil being able to score more than three goals against Costa Rica at +135. That game ended in a 2-0 Brazil win. Then I got caught up in Iceland fever and said the extra tall Jon Bodvarsson would be the first on his team to score against Nigeria. But with Nigeria winning 2-0, even at +450 the result was still nil as I got blanked again.
OK, auspicious start, but I was looking pretty good for 45 minutes on my bet for Serbia to beat Switzerland 1-0. With neither team paying well for a straight-up win, this score-based prop carried a +600 that made it worth an imaginary $10 flyer. And the Serbs carried that margin until the 52nd minute before giving up a goal and crushing my dreams.
Down $40 on the day, my last wager saved me from a total disaster. I liked Croatia to upset a struggling Argentina at 3/1. And Croatia did win, 3-1.
With that $30 fake payoff, I was only down $20 on that round of betting, and down $7.50 total, which should be easy to make up with the next set of delicious bets I’d be able to dig up.
Game of Minutes
This was the type of day that makes gamblers pull their hair out. My first wager was Germany under 1.5 goals at +500. My read on a low-scoring affair was spot-on. They took a 1-1 tie into extra time, but with less than half a minute remaining, Germany scored to sink the Swedes, and at +500 yank what would’ve been a nice $50 from my grasp.
The second bad beat was equally infuriating. I had Mexico 2-0 against South Korea at +650. They had that margin until South Korea scored with 1 minute, 45 seconds remaining.
Then I had England’s Harry Kane at +500 scoring before the 20th minute against Panama. He scored in minute 22.
Before I gave up altogether, I did return to winning ways with the last two bets that day. I had Romelu Lukaku at 11/4 scoring in the first half against Panama, which he did, and Colombia +125 to defeat Poland, which they did, too. Those bets paid a combined $40.
For a day that came so close to adding $165 to my bankroll, it instead subtracted another $10. In total for the World Cup, placing all my recommended Five Bets had us down $17.50.
Long Shot Love
On the final betting of group play I made the mistake many gamblers make and tried to go for a big win.
My +200 bet on Australia to beat Peru lost badly, as did my +500 on Nigeria to defeat Argentina. Germany winning by three at +170 was a bust when they got sent home by South Korea. At that point the last two bets couldn’t save me. Switzerland +700 to win 2-0 turned out to be a 2-2 draw, and England at +325 to defeat Belgium by a goal didn’t play out that way when Harry Kane and the Brits were blanked, 1-0.
I lost $50 on the day, going into the elimination bracket am down $67.50 overall. I did pick up a couple subtle nuances, however, in identifying the bets that did pay, and believe I can apply them to the next round.
