Now that the World Cup Round of 16 gets underway on Saturday, teams will begin to show more of their true form, and finding value bets will be much more difficult.
Teams that shocked the soccer world by advancing will have a much harder time surprising opponents and will probably be going home after one game.
Below are five bets that mostly represent that thinking, and could pay off well if they hit.
1. Argentina +240 over France
This is the only possible upset, and it’s not even that much of one. France has the better team on paper, but they are young, and in a position to feel the pressure of the Round of 16. They very well could play cautious, and Argentina could take advantage of that.
The biggest question for Argentina is if Lionel Messi will be the superstar player everyone expected. He finally scored a goal in the 2-1 win over Nigeria, but has been quiet otherwise. Even if he isn’t up to form, his teammates will be, and will pull off the upset.
2. Spain 2-1 +850 over Russia
There is little doubt the host country is going to lose, even fans and former players are resigned to that. But the team, which many thought was one of the worst in recent history, has thrilled fans by advancing to the Round of 16.
“Honestly, it’s hard to imagine how we could overcome a team like this,” Dmitri Alenichev, the former footballer and now coach of Yenisey Krasnoyarsk, told UK Sport Express. “Only if there’s a miracle. But I don’t believe in one.”
Spain, however, has issues as well. Their defense has been spotty, and Coach Fernando Hierro was contemplating replacing goalie David de Gea. He ultimately decided to stay with him, but don’t be surprised if Russia sneaks in a goal.
3. Half Time Denmark/Full Time Croatia +2800
This bet is a bit eccentric, but will pay off big if it hits. Denmark has to have the lead after the first half, and then Croatia has to win the match.
Denmark needs to score first to have any chance to defeat Croatia. If they can get a goal in the first half, they can keep Croatia off balance going into the second half.
But Croatia is too good of a team to let an early deficit bother them. They will regroup in the locker room, and then score two second-half goals to advance.
4. Either Brazil or Mexico 2-1 Score +500
Mexico was the surprise of the World Cup, defeating Germany and South Korea to advance to the Knockout Round. They have been the darlings of the tournament, but get brought back to earth against Brazil.
Brazil sputtered in their first game, tying Switzerland, but won their next two and look like the favorites they were tabbed to be before the tournament started.
It is conceivable Mexico could defeat Brazil, but it’s probably more likely the other way around. They should at least get a goal, however.
5. Belgium to Score Between 20-30 minutes +550
Belgium could be considered a dark horse to advance past the quarterfinals, and should have an easy time with Japan. The Japanese team is much improved, but not in the same class as Belgium.
There should be some back and forth play in the first 15 minutes, and then Belgium should start mounting calculated and relentless attacks. Japan won’t be able to counter them all, and the first goal should be scored between 20-30 minutes.